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ADDIS ABABA,
Ethiopia -- "Get
it done quickly
and get out."
That, says a
senior U.S.
diplomat here,
was the goal of
the
little-noticed
war that
Ethiopia has
been fighting,
with American
support, against
Islamic
extremists in
Somalia. But
this in-and-out
strategy
encounters the
same real-world
obstacles that
America is
facing in Iraq
and Afghanistan.
Conflict is less
the problem than
post-conflict.
That's the
dilemma that
America and its
allies are
discovering in a
world where
war-fighting and
nation-building
have become
perversely
mixed. It took
the Ethiopians
just a week to
drive a Muslim
radical movement
known as the
Islamic Courts
from Mogadishu
last December.
The hard part
wasn't chasing
the enemy from
the capital, but
putting the
country back
together.
"The Ethiopians
are looking for
an opportunity
to exit, but not
until they are
confident that
the security
environment will
prevent a return
to chaos," says
a State
Department
official who
helps oversee
policy for the
region. And in
Somalia, a
backward country
that has seen 14
governments
since 1991, that
process of
stabilization
will be anything
but easy.
The Somalia war
comes up during
every stop of a
tour of the horn
of Africa with
Adm. William
Fallon, the new
head of U.S.
Central Command.
In 2002, Centcom
established a
regional outpost
in the dusty
port city of
Djibouti, at the
entrance to the
Red Sea. It now
has about 1,500
U.S. military
personnel there.
Some of them are
out digging
wells, building
schools,
vaccinating
goats and
otherwise
"waging peace,"
as a spokesman
there explains.
That's the
nation-building
side.
The Djibouti
base also
provides
logistical
support for U.S.
Special Forces
teams that are
hunting down
what's left of
the al-Qaida
terrorist cells
that bombed
American
embassies in
Kenya and
Tanzania in
1998.
Because Somalia
provided a haven
for al-Qaida, it
was a special
target after
Sept. 11, 2001.
But the Bush
administration,
remembering the
disastrous 1993
humanitarian
intervention
there, was wary
of getting
involved
directly.
Initially, the
CIA paid Somali
warlords to hunt
down al-Qaida
operatives. But
the warlords
didn't catch
many terrorists
and, perhaps
worse, the
payoffs added to
an anarchic
situation that
led many Somalis
to turn to the
Islamic Courts
for protection.
The Somalis were
mercenary but
unreliable. One
official recalls
how the CIA
distributed
matchbooks in
Somalia offering
a $10 million
reward for the
capture of Osama
bin Laden. The
Somalis
complained that
they were being
cheated because
a CIA Web site
was offering a
$25 million
reward.
The bounties to
the Somali
warlords "at the
time appeared to
be the only
viable option
given our lack
of access," says
an intelligence
official back in
the U.S. The
secret CIA
program was
terminated in
2006.
Ethiopia,
fearing the
establishment of
a radical Muslim
government on
its eastern
border, began
planning its
military
intervention
soon after the
Islamic Courts
took control in
Mogadishu in
June 2006. At
first, Centcom
cautioned the
Ethiopians
against
invading. But
after 10,000
Ethiopian troops
surged across
the border on
Dec. 24, they
received U.S.
overhead
reconnaissance
and other
battlefield
intelligence.
Next came an
Ethiopian-American
pincer strategy:
In January,
after Muslim
fighters had
fled Mogadishu,
the U.S.
launched two
devastating air
attacks by
AC-130 gunships.
A senior al-Qaida
operative named
Abu Talha al-Sudani
was probably
killed in these
coordinated
attacks, a U.S.
official said.
Overall, about
8,000 Muslim
fighters were
killed in the
brief war, while
the Ethiopians
lost just 225
dead and 500
wounded.
A successful
proxy war, from
the American
standpoint. But
then what? The
Ethiopians began
pulling out
their troops
almost
immediately, and
by March, the
Muslim radicals
were threatening
to regain
control of
Mogadishu.
Ethiopian troops
stormed back and
crushed the
Muslim rebels
once again. The
Ethiopians have
now concluded
that they can't
withdraw
completely
anytime soon;
they must
instead stay and
train a friendly
Somali army that
can support the
pro-Ethiopian
"Transitional
Federal
Government."
The Ethiopians
are hopeful they
can forge a
reconciliation
among Somali
clan leaders.
Meanwhile, the
Ethiopians are
looking for
cover from an
African Union
force they hope
will eventually
total at least
5,000 soldiers;
so far only
about 1,800
soldiers from
Uganda have
shown up.
It's like Iraq
and Afghanistan,
in other words.
A decisive
military strike
has destroyed
one threat. But
what's left
behind, when the
dust clears, is
a shattered
tribal society
that won't have
real stability
without a
complex process
of political
reconciliation
and economic
development.
There's no
turning back
now, says a U.S.
diplomat, but he
cautions:
"Anyone working
in Somalia has
to have
developed a
certain humility
about our
ability to pick
leaders from
clans and
sub-clans."
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